smartcompany.com.au:
Westpac chief economist Bill Evans has continued to revise expectations of the next RBA cash rate cut but is sticking with his forecast of at least one more reduction in 2012.
But he is rapidly running out of monetary policy meetings for this to happen, with November now tipped by Evans as the next likely time the RBA will move.
If the forecast were to be pushed back even further, this would only leave December 4 for one more rate cut in 2012 – a far cry from Evans' end-of-May forecast of a 2.75% cash rate by year-end.
The RBA does not meet in January.
Evans was most bullish at the end of May, following the 5o-basis-point cash rate cut, correctly forecasting a 25-basis-point rate cut in June.
However, expectations of further rate cuts in July and August did not eventuate. Evans also said at the time that he expected another rate cut in the fourth quarter, bringing the cash rate down to a record low of 2.75%.
These expectations have been revised back over the last few months as the property market shows some signs of life, unemployment remains low and the domestic economy performs in line with expectations.
Following yesterday’s RBA decision to keep the cash rate on hold in August, Evans said the subsequent monetary policy decision statement suggested November was now the most likely month for the next rate cut.
"[Yesterday’s] monetary policy decision statement gave little encouragement that a move in September can be expected, and it may be that even October will be a little early given the likely 0.8% print for GDP growth in the June quarter on September 5," Evans said.
On July 17 Evans pushed back Westpac’s forecast for the next rate cut from August to either October or November.
